Insight

Forecast & feedback loop

The Forecast Agent grades its prior runs against actuals and retrains assumption priors. The Stout marketing proof point in writing.

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Forecast accuracy track record

|Δ| of each prior forecast vs the period it covered. Green band = within 5%.

6 prior forecasts
Engagements
6
Revenue within 5%
6 of 6
Avg. revenue delta
2.6%
October 2025 forecast vs Q4 actuals

Generated Oct 15, 2025 — graded Jan 2, 2026.

Revenue+2.7%

Revenue beat the October forecast by 2.7%, driven by EMEA close.

Forecast $16,800,000
Actual $17,250,000
Operating income-21.8%

Material miss on operating income because the Q2 AWS reserved-instance lock at higher rates was not visible to the agent in October. This pattern (cost of revenue underestimated under capacity expansion) has been added to the agent's assumption priors for FY2026.

Forecast $1,650,000
Actual $1,290,000
ARR (Q4 close)+1.7%

ARR within 1.7% of forecast; Q4 net new ARR slightly exceeded the plan.

Forecast $70,200,000
Actual $71,400,000
CAC Payback (months)+22.0%

CAC payback degraded by 4 months. The S&M intensity assumption needs to be revised upward for FY2026 given the EMEA pipeline acceleration ahead of the German covenant review.

Forecast 18 mo
Actual 22 mo
FY2026 outlook

Revenue trajectory across baseline, upside, and downside scenarios.

Scenario assumptions